Pakistan’s identity as an agrarian state is not merely a sentimental claim; it is a cold economic reality. The nation’s economic heartbeat is synchronized with the rhythm of its fields. Yet today, those very fields, which should be beacons of prosperity, are broadcasting messages of debt, desperation, and systemic collapse. In a tragic irony, the 2024-25 season has seen Pakistan’s potato growers shatter all previous production records, propelling the country into the elite club of the world’s top ten potato-producing nations. However, for the men and women behind this feat, this "bumper crop" has morphed into a waking nightmare. Due to a toxic combination of administrative lethargy, export paralysis, and a predatory market structure, the record yield has become the instrument of their economic slaughter.
The scale of this crisis of plenty is reflected in the staggering official statistics. During the current fiscal year, Pakistan produced a monumental 9.9 million tons of potatoes against a government-set target of 6.8 million tons. This represents a surplus of 44.7% over the initial projections. This surge was no accident; it was the result of a deliberate and massive expansion by farmers, with the area under cultivation growing by 41% from 268, 000 hectares to 378, 000 hectares. Punjab remained the vanguard of this growth, exceeding its production target by 45.2%, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan contributed significant gains of 31.3% and 27.3%, respectively. While these figures are a testament to the resilience of the Pakistani farmer and favorable climatic conditions, they have become a curse in a country where the state has no plan for success. The financial ruin currently facing the potato farmer is not born of emotional hyperbole; it is rooted in the merciless mathematics of modern agriculture. To cultivate a single acre of potatoes today, a farmer must invest between PKR 200, 000 and PKR 300, 000 in direct costs. This capital is consumed by the skyrocketing prices of imported seeds, high-grade fertilizers, pesticides, and the staggering cost of energy both in the form of diesel and inflated electricity tariffs for tube wells. When these input costs are amortized, the cost of production stands at approximately PKR 26 to 27 per kilogram.
In any functional economy, a producer must receive a support price or market rate that offers at least a 20% to 30% margin to cover household expenses and fund the next sowing cycle. Instead, the market has crashed to a devastating low of below PKR 20 per kilogram. This means that for every kilogram sold, the farmer is incurring a direct loss of PKR 7. In effect, the Pakistani farmer is subsidizing the nation’s dinner table with his own life savings, bleeding capital with every sack of produce he offloads. The gravity of this situation is most visible in the wholesale markets (Mandis), where a 60kg sack of potatoes is currently fetching a pittance of PKR 600 to 700. To understand the depth of this tragedy, one must look at the overheads: transportation and packaging (bardana) alone now cost nearly PKR 400 per sack. Once the middleman’s (Arhti) commission and market levies are deducted, the farmer is often left with an amount that fails to cover even the cost of the seed he planted months ago. The Chamber of Food and Agriculture Pakistan estimates that if this price trend is not immediately corrected, the total loss to the farming community will hit PKR 66 billion. This is not just a loss for the farmers; it is a massive drainage of liquidity from the rural economy that will fuel poverty, unemployment, and social unrest.
This devastation is not distributed evenly; it is concentrated in Pakistan’s vital "potato belt." Approximately 80% of the national yield is produced in just six districts: Okara, Pakpattan, Sahiwal, Kasur, Vehari, and Khanewal. The micro-economic impact here is harrowing. In Okara alone, farmers are staring down a loss of PKR 16.7 billion. In Pakpattan, the figure is PKR 12.8 billion, and in Sahiwal, it is PKR 7.9 billion. These districts do not have a diversified industrial base; their entire social fabric is woven around the potato harvest. When the farmer loses his capital, he cannot afford to sow the next crop, such as maize or rice. This creates a domino effect that cripples the regional supply chain, destroys rural purchasing power, and eventually hits the urban manufacturing sector as demand for tractors, fertilizers, and consumer goods dries up. The catalyst for this meltdown is a profound failure of trade diplomacy and infrastructure. Historically, Pakistan’s surplus was absorbed by markets in Afghanistan and Central Asia. However, frequent border closures, red tape in transit trade agreements and a lack of state patronage for exporters have effectively sealed these escape valves. When 3 million tons of surplus produce have nowhere to go, a price crash is inevitable. The state’s failure to pre-emptively secure new export markets or offer freight subsidies as the bumper crop became evident is nothing short of a criminal oversight.
Pakistan’s cold storage and processing infrastructure are stuck in the 20th century. High electricity costs make storage a gamble that most small farmers lose, forcing them into panic selling. Meanwhile, the lack of a value-addition industry which could convert surplus potatoes into starch, powder, or frozen goods means we continue to export low-value raw materials while our own farmers perish. The state must now choose: will it honor the backbone of the economy, or will it let it break? An "Agricultural Emergency" is no longer a choice but a necessity. The government must immediately facilitate the export of the 3-million-ton surplus through special incentives, provide targeted electricity subsidies to the affected districts, and offer interest-free bridge loans to ensure farmers can sow the next crop. To be a top-ten global producer is a matter of national pride, but to allow those producers to be slaughtered by their own success is a national disgrace. If we do not rescue the potato farmer today, the dream of national food security will perish along with them.
